Democrats look strong in Metro legislative races

For a variety of reasons, the number of registered voters who are Democrats goes up

By Steve Law

The Lake Oswego Review, Aug 7, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009

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Democrats – for the first time in decades – are poised to capture or seriously contest every suburban Portland legislative race this fall, thanks to a surge in voter registration.

Oregon Democrats have added 115,000 registered voters since January, overtaking the GOP in four of the five Republican-leaning House districts in Portland suburbs.

If Democrats capitalize on their new recruits, they can win a “supermajority” in Salem needed to raise taxes and enact ambitious environmental and other reforms. They also could cement a shift in state political power closer to Portland, Democrats’ stronghold.

“The opportunity available for Democrats is enormous,” said lobbyist Alan Tresidder, who represents Nike and other clients. “If they take advantage of it, I think it will change the political landscape for the next decade.”

Democrats’ statewide voter registration has ballooned 15 percent since January, while Republicans have lost 2 percent of their adherents.

In two races that have links to Lake Oswego, the House District 38 race between Democrat Chris Garrett of Lake Oswego and Republican Stephen Griffith of Portland, shows Democrats now have a 17.4 percent edge in the number of registered voters. Similarly, in Congressional District Race 5, pitting Republican Mike Erickson, Lake Oswego, against Canby Democrat Kurt Schrader, the Democrats now hold a 5.2 percent lead in registered voters. In January, Republicans held a slim one percentage-point lead.

Political analysts trace Democrats’ gains to several factors: Voters souring on President Bush and the Iraq war; enthusiasm about voting for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the May primary; and aggressive voter-registration drives.

Many of the new Democratic converts are going to “go home” eventually, predicted Tom Gallagher, lobbyist for the Portland Business Alliance and other clients. “But I tend to think there’s something serious in this,” Gallagher said. “If these are real long-term voters, it has huge impact.”

Shifting views of nonaffiliated or independent voters may be just as critical to Democratic gains this fall, said lobbyist Gary Conkling, who represents businesses, school districts and other clients. Prevailing independent-voter concerns, such as the Iraq war, shaky economy and health care, “tend to break awkwardly for Republicans” now, Conkling said.

Conservative Republicans seized control of the Oregon Legislature in the early-1990s largely by capturing suburban Portland swing districts. But now Republican districts are an endangered species in the Portland area.

Since January, GOP-leaning House districts centered in Hillsboro, West Linn/Tigard, Canby/Oregon City and Clackamas have flipped, with registered Democrats now outnumbering their Republican counterparts. To find a GOP district in the Portland area, you have to go all the way to Wilsonville, and Democrats have a decent shot at winning that House seat this year.

Political analysts say Democrats are now poised to make gains in East Multnomah County and Clackamas County, echoing the party’s recent gains in Washington County races.

Republicans likely will get “shut out” of Washington County legislative races this fall, Conkling predicted. “It’s not inconceivable that they’ll get shut out in Clackamas County,” he said.

Political insiders from both parties predict Democrats will pad their 31-29 House majority in fall races. Republicans are widely expected to pick up one Senate seat, but that still leaves Democrats with an 18-12 majority in that chamber.

If Democrats can get to 36 House members, that gives them the 60 percent supermajority needed to pass tax increases without any Republican votes.

House Majority Leader Dave Hunt, D-Gladstone, the odds-on favorite to be next House speaker, said Democrats aren’t likely to seek or win universal health care, a gas-tax increase or overhaul of Oregon’s tax system in the 2009 legislative session. But Democrats are in good shape to pass less sweeping proposals that eluded them in 2007, he said, such as:

n A cigarette tax increase to provide health care for children

n Higher car-license fees to fund transportation improvements

n Funding more affordable housing via increased fees on real estate document recording

n Support for stem cell research

n Raising the corporate-minimum tax

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